Nuclear renaissance could stall, Canada group says

4 February 2010/Reuters News(c) 2010 Reuters Limited * Significant industry expansion by 2030 seen unlikely* Cost, security issues could hamper new builds (In U.S. dollars, unless noted)
By Cameron French

TORONTO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Expectations of a sharp rise in nuclear generating capacity over the next two decades are likely overblown, a Canadian think tank said on Thursday, disputing conventional wisdom that a nuclear renaissance is in full swing.

In a report based on a 3-1/2 year study of the nuclear industry, the Waterloo, Ontario-based Centre for International Governance Innovation said new reactor construction will be held back by a series of economic, security, and waste disposal issues.

"Despite some powerful drivers, a revival of nuclear energy faces too many barriers compared to other means of generating electricity," Trevor Findlay, the report's author, said in a statement.

He argues that, despite claims in the industry that nuclear capacity is expanding, there have actually been very few new reactors started in recent years, and that nuclear energy as a percentage of global energy production has actually retreated since 2001.
Standing in the way of new construction are costs that can run up to $10 billion per new reactor, competition from other, cheaper, energy sources, the problem of safely disposing of nuclear waste, and concern about the spread of nuclear weapons, the report said.

"On balance, a significant expansion of nuclear energy worldwide to 2030 faces constraints that, while not insurmountable, are likely to outweigh the drivers of nuclear energy," it said.

This contrasts with expectations of a sharp rise in nuclear generating capacity over the next 20 years due to higher energy demand from emerging nations and a push to reduce global carbon emissions.
The World Nuclear Association, an industry group whose forecasts are often cited by uranium producers, predicts generating capacity could rise by more than 50 percent by 2030, while the number of operating reactors could rise by a third.
In its report, the Centre for International Governance Innovation, or CIGI, predicted that new reactor openings will be offset by closure of older reactors.
The study follows recent decisions by the Canadian provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta not to go ahead with costly reactors that had been contemplated, and the cancellation of a planned build in Ontario.
CIGI was founded in 2002 by Research In Motion co-Chief Executive Jim Balsillie. Canada is the world's No. 2 producer of uranium. (Reporting by Cameron French; editing by Peter Galloway)

Why the World May Turn to Nuclear Power

Why the World May Turn to Nuclear Power
Richard Stieglitz; Rick Docksai
1 November 2009, Futurist, IACA, 16, Volume 43; Issue 6; ISSN: 00163317
© 2009 Futurist. Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning. All Rights Reserved.
Demand for fossil fuels may decline, but demand for electric power will soar. Nuclear power, resisted by many, may provide a long-term solution, and it has come a long way since Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.
Within the next 10 years, the world's major economies will choose nuclear power as the clean, high-capacity baseload (i.e., primary) electricity. Nuclear power is experiencing a worldwide rebirth, with 12 countries building 45 new reactors. Nuclear power currently generates 16% of the world's electricity, but by 2030 it will approach 30%.
The global warming situation is dire, and fossil fuels are a major cause: 90% of carbon-dioxide pollution comes from the fossil fuels that generate electricity and provide transportation. Solar energy and wind power are attractive, clean energy sources and will proliferate, but a high-capacity baseload energy is vital: The wind doesn't blow and the sun doesn't shine all the time. Countries are already choosing nuclear as a substitute for the fossil-fueled power plants that intensify the destructive climate changes related to global warming. They will continue to do so as years progress.